MY FAVORITE FX TRADE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS: THE NZDUSD

Background: Arguably one of the most overbought pairs because it moved up with the AUDUSD even though New Zealand's economic fundamentals and recovery story was not nearly as compelling as Australia's. Thus when the current pullback began, it was very vulnerable and came in hard and broke strong support near the $0.7250, where both its 50 day MA AND 23.6% Fibonacci retracement converged. Currently sitting on multiday support around 0.7160, it is currently falling (despite positive Labor Cost index q/q data this morning) and testing this level as Asian stocks pull back, apparently unimpressed by Wall Street's last minute rally on below average volume.



Recommendation: No real support until $0.7077, at which level converges both a minor price support level from September and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. No major NZD or USD news Tuesday, so this will move with overall market sentiment, which is currently down in Asia. However Wednesday is packed with top events in both the US and NZ (see Summary-Key Events at the top) to virtually guarantee volatility.



To play the further drop, entry near current levels as shown on the chart below while sufficient profit potential remains before the $0.7077.

To play the upside, wait until stocks start climbing on some substantially positive news that could sustain a multi-day bounce, and the pair breaks above $0.7160. Wednesday's packed calendar should provide clarification of the trend until Friday's US NFP comes out.

NZDUSD DAILY CHART



03 Nov 03

DISCLOSURE: AUTHOR HAS NO POSITION IN THE ABOVE INSTRUMENTS